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Winner of the IIE Book of the Month for June 2012 A project can be simple or complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed. In all cases of project management implementation, control must be exercised in order to assure that project objectives are achieved. Statistical Techniques for Project Control seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques for project control. It fills the void that exists in the application of statistical techniques...

Recent advances in the area of lifted inference, which exploits the structure inherent in relational probabilistic models. Statistical relational AI (StaRAI) studies the integration of reasoning under uncertainty with reasoning about individuals and relations. The representations used are often called relational probabilistic models. Lifted inference is about how to exploit the structure inherent in relational probabilistic models, either in the way they are expressed or by extracting structure...

Bayesian Approaches in Oncology Using R and OpenBUGS serves two audiences: those who are familiar with the theory and applications of bayesian approach and wish to learn or enhance their skills in R and OpenBUGS, and those who are enrolled in R and OpenBUGS-based course for bayesian approach implementation. For those who have never used R/OpenBUGS, the book begins with a self-contained introduction to R that lays the foundation for later chapters. Many books on the bayesian approach and the sta...

Statistics in Practice A new series of practical books outlining the use of statistical techniques in a wide range of application areas: Human and Biological Sciences Earth and Environmental Sciences Industry, Commerce and Finance The authors of this important text explore the processes through which archaeologists analyse their data and how these can be made more rigorous and effective by sound statistical modelling. They assume relatively little previous statistical or mathematical knowledg...

Gibbs (or DLR) measures are the main objects in classical equilibrium statistical mechanics. Statistical mechanics deals with models from mathematical physics and chemistry where one is interested in, for example, some average behaviour of an interacting system subjected to some noise. They were originally introduced as probability measures on systems of infinitely many particles in infinite volume, satisfying a set of consistent conditional probabilities. Probability measures captured the uncer...

Outside of randomized experiments, association does not imply causation, and yet there is nothing defective about our knowledge that smoking causes lung cancer, a conclusion reached in the absence of randomized experimentation with humans. How is that possible? If observed associations do not identify causal effects in observational studies, how can a sequence of such associations become decisive? Two or more associations may each be susceptible to unmeasured biases, yet not susceptible to the...

Probabilistic models have much to offer to philosophy. We continually receive information from a variety of sources: from our senses, from witnesses, from scientific instruments. When considering whether we should believe this information, we assess whether the sources are independent, how reliable they are, and how plausible and coherent the information is. Bovens and Hartmann provide a systematic Bayesian account of these features of reasoning. Simple Bayesian networks allow us to model altern...

Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection systematically develops the theory of sequential hypothesis testing and quickest changepoint detection. It also describes important applications in which theoretical results can be used efficiently. The book reviews recent accomplishments in hypothesis testing and changepoint detecti

A guide to implementing and operating a practical reliability program using carefully designed experiments to provide information quickly, efficiently and cost effectively. It emphasizes real world solutions to daily problems. The second edition contains a special expanded section demonstrating how to combine accelerated testing with design of experiments for immediate improvement.

Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scienti...

An introduction and explanation of pragmatic methods and techniques for reliability and risk studies, and a discussion of their uses and limitations. It features computer software that illustrates numerous examples found in the book, offering to help engineers and students solve problems. There is a module on Bayesian estimation. The computer disk is written in Visual Basic and is compatible with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets.

This book covers the development of methods for detection and estimation of changes in complex systems. These systems are generally described by nonstationary stochastic models, which comprise both static and dynamic regimes, linear and nonlinear dynamics, and constant and time-variant structures of such systems. It covers both retrospective and sequential problems, particularly theoretical methods of optimal detection. Such methods are constructed and their characteristics are analyzed both the...

This book describes how Bayesian methods work. Its primary aim is to demystify them, and to show readers: Bayesian thinking isn't difficult and can be used in virtually every kind of research. In addition to revealing the underlying simplicity of statistical methods, the book explains how to parameterise and compare models while accounting for uncertainties in data, model parameters and model structures. How exactly should data be used in modelling? The literature offers a bewildering variety o...

Researchers and students who use empirical investigation in their work must go through the process of selecting statistical methods for analyses, and they are often challenged to justify these selections. This book is designed for readers with limited background in statistical methodology who seek guidance in defending their statistical decision-making in the worlds of research and practice. It is devoted to helping students and scholars find the information they need to select data analytic met...

This text presents a theory of probabilistic reasoning, statistical inference and decision. The book is concerned with the problems of reasoning under conditions of uncertainty, partial information and ignorance. It is argued that, in order to give appropriate weight to both ignorance and uncertainty, imprecise probabilities need to be assessed. The imprecision can be modelled mathematically by upper and lower probabilities or (more generally) upper and lower previsions. The degree of imprecisio...

A one-of-a-kind guide to identifying and dealing with modern statistical developments in causality Written by a group of well-known experts, Statistics and Causality: Methods for Applied Empirical Research focuses on the most up-to-date developments in statistical methods in respect to causality. Illustrating the properties of statistical methods to theories of causality, the book features a summary of the latest developments in methods for statistical analysis of causality hypotheses. The book...

Elementary Probability with Applications, Second Edition shows students how probability has practical uses in many different fields, such as business, politics, and sports. In the book, students learn about probability concepts from real-world examples rather than theory. The text explains how probability models with underlying assumptions are used to model actual situations. It contains examples of probability models as they relate to:Bloc votingPopulation geneticsDoubling strategies in casino...

Incorporating new and updated information, this second edition of THE bestselling text in Bayesian data analysis continues to emphasize practice over theory, describing how to conceptualize, perform, and critique statistical analyses from a Bayesian perspective. Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and i

This edited collection brings together internationally recognized experts in a range of areas of statistical science to honor the contributions of the distinguished statistician, Barry C. Arnold. A pioneering scholar and professor of statistics at the University of California, Riverside, Dr. Arnold has made exceptional advancements in different areas of probability, statistics, and biostatistics, especially in the areas of distribution theory, order statistics, and statistical inference. As a tr...