Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do by Kaiser Fung

Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do

by Kaiser Fung

WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY?

How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World?

Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair?

Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps?

What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”?

NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD
In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way.

These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life.

What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World…

"An easy read with a big benefit."
—Fareed Zakaria, CNN

"For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics."
—Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart

"A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal."
—John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute

"Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably."
—Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist

"A tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands."
—Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of London

"I thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommendit to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and dataanalysis in solving problems and in creating a better world."
—Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician

Reviewed by remo on

5 of 5 stars

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Libro muy, muy interesante en el que en cuatro grandes bloques el autor analiza los usos cotidianos de la estadística, más allá de lo que solemos saber. La estadística se usa cuando aparece un brote epidemiológico, cuando diseñas análisis de dopaje, o exámenes de polígrafo, cuando intentas minimizar los tiempos percibidos por los visitantes de Disneylandia o los viajeros de una red de autopistas, o cuando intentas diseñar un examen tipo test que no discrimine a los estudiantes según su origen. El autor nos muestra bastantes veces que lo que dicta nuestro sentido común es un craso error. He tenido que releer varias veces varios pasajes porque lo que leía me parecía claramente incorrecto, pero resulta que se ha comprobado que hay cosas que son como son a pesar de nuestros prejuicios. El autor se esfuerza en hacernos entender que, por ejemplo, dada una fiabilidad de un test (por ejemplo, el test de dopaje por nandrolona es fiable al 99,9%), cualquier esfuerzo que hagamos por evitar falsos negativos (es decir, por impedir que se escapen los dopados) incrementará el número de falsos positivos (gente limpia que da positivo en el test) y que según el contexto nos interesará más mejorar uno de los dos números (un falso negativo hace trampas pero no sale en los periódicos, un falso positivo es una serie de juicios y portadas en los periódicos criticando el sistema y proclamando su inocencia).
El libro es muy interesante, reitero, y va un paso más allá de la introducción a los temas, siendo en ocasiones lo suficientemente denso como para tener que dedicarle ratillos a digerir las ideas del autor. Acaba el libro con una gigantesca bibliografía comentada que da para cientos de horas de lectura adicional.
Me ha encantado.

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  • Started reading
  • 14 August, 2012: Finished reading
  • 14 August, 2012: Reviewed