Book 224

Explains the concepts and use of univariate Box-Jenkins/ARIMA analysis and forecasting through 15 case studies. Cases show how to build good ARIMA models in a step-by-step manner using real data. Also includes examples of model misspecification. Provides guidance to alternative models and discusses reasons for choosing one over another.

Book 935

This volume presents the basic concepts and practice of building, using and interpreting single equation dynamic regression models (also called transfer function and intervention models). The book is a companion volume to "Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models", published in 1983. The emphasis of the book is on applications. It pulls together time series in the Box-Jenkins tradition that are important for the informed practice of single equation regression forecasting. Special attention is given to possible dynamic patterns - distributed lag responses of the output series to the input series, and the auto- correlation patterns of the regression disturbance.