The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Nate Silver

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent)

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.

In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data.

'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph

'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

• ISBN10: 0141975652
• ISBN13: 9780141975658
• Publish Date: 18 April 2013 (first published 1 September 2012)
• Publish Status: Active
• Publish Country: GB
• Imprint: Penguin Books Ltd
• Format: Paperback (B-Format (198x129 mm))
• Pages: 544
• Language: English

Reviews

[Jeff Sexton]

Solid Application of Statistics. I'm a math geek who has casually followed Silver's work since he came on the national radar after the 2008 Presidential election. In this book, he uses his own mathematical background and many interviews to show how probabilistic statistics (vs more deterministic statistics) gives us great insight into a wide range of issues, from the mundane yet popular topics of poker and baseball - things he has personal experience with using statistics on - to the seemingly more substantial issues including weather forecasting, political polling, climate change and even terrorism. And overall, he is very careful to stick to his central point: follow the numbers, no matter where they lead - which he calls the "signal". Very highly recommended for anyone trying to have a genuine discussion on really almost any topic.

[adamfortuna]

The first 3 chapters of this one were my favorites.