Progress in Planning S.
2 total works
This work investigates a methodology for small area social change which distinguishes between localised and general processes and specifically models the temporal dependence underlying change. Spatial persistence over time is modelled using a conditional regression model relating later to earlier values of social indices to obtain a genuine measure of change independent of initial values. Thus the inconsistencies between methods which are not base free can be resolved. This methodology is applied to intercensal changes (1971 to 1981) in socio-economic, age and ethnic structure for London electoral wards. The ability to determine the relative importance of structural and localised change allows an assessment of the extent to which processes such as gentrification are London wide or primarily local. The investigation is extended to recent trends in unemployment and mortality with the intention of assessing whether changes in spatial differentiation point to a widespread increase in inequality and how far changes in the deprivation rank order of wards reduce spatial persistence over time.
This research has two aims. First it is an evaluation of a new and valuable set of census data for urban Britain. Secondly, it is a study of recent urbanisation processes in England. The data concerned are for census enumeration districts and tracts/parishes which, according to well-defined and consistently applied criteria, are 'irreversibly urban' in character. Over 2,000 such urban areas were defined for Britain in 1981. The research describes the origins of OPCS/DOE urban areas and compares them with previous attempts to describe urban settlements on the basis of land use and discusses the value of treating them as a complement to definitions of urbanism based on functionality. For those who will use the new urban areas data for research and planning, it makes detailed assessment of census statistics derived from the enumeration district (1981) and change-file (1971-81) constitutions of urban areas. As an investigation into urbanisation processes, this study is a contribution to the debate on 'counter-urbanisation' in Britain.