Shifting Ground

by Peter H. Lindert

Published 12 October 2000
In this book Peter Lindert evaluates environmental concerns about soil degradation in two very large countries -- China and Indonesia -- where anecdotal evidence has suggested serious problems. Lindert does what no scholar before him has done: using new archival data sets, he measures changes in soil productivity over long enough periods of time to reveal the influence of human activity. China and Indonesia are good test cases because of their geography and history. China has been at the center of global concerns about desertification and water erosion, which it may have accelerated with intense agriculture. Most of Indonesia's lands were created by volcanoes and erosion, and its rapid deforestation and shifting slash-burn agriculture have been singled out for international censure. Lindert's investigation suggests that human mismanagement is not on average worsening the soil quality in China and Indonesia. Human cultivation lowers soil nitrogen and organic matter, but has offsetting positive effects. Economic development and rising incomes may even lead to better soil.
Beyond the importance of Lindert's immediate findings, this book opens a new area of study -- quantitative soil history -- and raises the standard for debating soil trends.

This anatomy of financial crises shows that the debt crisis of the 1980s is not unprecedented and was even forecast by many Eichengreen and Lindert, bring together original studies that assess the historical record to see what lessons can be learned for resolving today's crisis. They offer a wide variety of approaches to negotiation over defaulted loans between creditors and debtors. The questions addressed are central to any informed discussion of the current debt crisis. Are periods of enthusiastic international lending commonly followed by default and market collapse? If so, why? What are the warning signs of impending crisis? What kinds of countries and loans are most susceptible to debt servicing difficulties? When default does occur, what are its economic and political consequences? Which approaches to negotiations between defaulting countries and their lenders are most likely to achieve a rapid resolution? Albert Fishlow compares international lending today with lending in the 1890s. Peter Lindert also isolates differences between international lending in the 1980s and lending in earlier times. Eliana Cardoso and Rudiger Dornbusch consider the efficiency of the lending process and the consequences and management of default for a debtor country. Chapters by Berry Eichengreen and Richard Portes, and by Jeffrey Sachs and Erika Jorgensen examine negotiations on international loans defaulted during the period between the two world wars. Vinod Aggarwal interprets the history of Mexico's debt crisis, and Charles Lipson considers the links between international financial relations and national security considerations. Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University ofCalifornia, Berkeley. Peter Lindert is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis.