remo
Written on Apr 9, 2021
1.- Qué pasos y en qué orden debemos dar para tomar una acción (clic para ampliar cada imagen):
2.- Predecir el curso de la acción de los demás:
When thinking about what someone else will do, it’s easy to ask the wrong question first. We might ask something like, “What’s the other side trying to achieve?” Or “What’s their endgame?”
Good questions for later. Not first.
The first question should always be, “What kind of game do they think we’re playing?”
[...]
All our interactions are only three kinds of games:
A. Zero-sum
B. Positive-sum
C. Negative-sum
Just three.
Zero-sum games dominate the history books. They’re conflicts. They’re when one player can only gain what another player gives up.
European wars. The Germans gain Alsace-Lorraine by force, the French lose it. The Treaty of Versailles gives Alsace-Lorraine back to the French, the Germans lose it. When it comes to land, France can only gain what Germany loses, and vice-versa. When the game’s finished and you add what was lost and gained by the players, it equals zero.
Politics, whether in a republic or democracy or monarchy or dictatorship, are also zero-sum games. One candidate wins a seat another candidate loses. One party wins control that another party loses. One king takes power when another dies. One dictator takes over because the last is removed in a coup. Power politics are zero-sum games, no matter what politicians want us to believe.
Positive-sum games are different. They’re cooperative. They continue only as long as both sides are gaining, or expect to. Like any good marriage or alliance or business partnership, benefits to both sides is what keeps it together. When you add up the gains, the result is positive. A positive-sum game.
Some positive-sum games last for centuries. Like the “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U. K on diplomatic issues. Some positive-sum games last for only as long as it takes to do the drive-thru at McDonald’s. Whatever the context, positive-sum games require exchange. They require voluntary action. Benefits to both sides.
Negative-sum games are rare. They’re wars of attrition. Verdun. Or a labor strike. Both sides are losing. Each side hopes it’s losing less than the other. As soon as one side figures it’s losing too much, the negative-sum game is over. Negative-sum games are like heavy elements that live for a short time before decaying into something else.
Understanding these three types of games is a shortcut to good thinking.[1] It helps us understand the people we’re working with or against.
Best of all, the games shortcut gets us closer to the Holy Grail of thinking: predicting what others will do next.
Muy interesante. El autor tiene dos más de este estilo, que he procedido a recopilar para The Pila™