New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."-Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
- ISBN10 0452297575
- ISBN13 9780452297579
- Publish Date 28 February 2012 (first published 1 March 2011)
- Publish Status Active
- Publish Country US
- Publisher Penguin Putnam Inc
- Imprint Plume
- Format Paperback (US Trade)
- Pages 320
- Language English
- URL https://penguinrandomhouse.com/books/isbn/9780452297579